Let’s not overcomplicate this.
The San Diego Padres are 63–64, two games out of first place, and very much alive in a division where nobody seems particularly interested in running away with anything.
So the real question isn’t just “Are they making the playoffs?”
It’s: “Does anyone in this division actually deserve to?”
The Padres’ Season in One Sentence
Bad early. Better late. Still flawed.
- April: 10–16
- May: 9–18
- June: 16–13
- July: 16–9
- August: 11–8
That’s not a contender’s profile—it’s a team that dug itself a hole and has been climbing out of it ever since. And to their credit, they have been climbing.
Since June 1, this is a winning baseball team. Since July? A good one.
The Division: A Three-Team Stalemate
Let’s line them up:
- Dodgers: 65–62
- Diamondbacks: 64–63
- Padres: 63–64
Three teams separated by two games in late August. That’s not a pennant race—that’s a traffic jam.
And none of them are exactly screaming “October threat.”
Arizona: The “Looks Good on Paper” Team
Arizona leads the league in hitting (.248 average, most hits in the UL), but let’s not pretend they’re dominating.
They’ve gone:
- 10–14 in July
- 9–10 in August
Translation: they peaked early and have been treading water since.
They make a lot of contact, don’t strike out, and run the bases well—but the pitching is middle-of-the-road, and the overall production hasn’t separated them from anyone.
They’re solid. Not scary.
Dodgers: The Best Team… Playing the Worst Baseball
The Dodgers went out and got Roger Clemens—the kind of move that’s supposed to slam the door on a division.
Instead?
- 7–11 in August
Their pitching is legitimately elite:
- 3rd in ERA
- 2nd in opponent average
- 2nd in strikeouts
But the offense? Bottom third in OPS, bottom third in power.
Right now, they look like a team trying to win every game 3–2—and lately, they haven’t even been doing that.
So Where Do the Padres Fit?
Right in the middle of the mess—and that might be enough.
Here’s what they are statistically:
Offense: Inconsistent and Swing-Happy
- .227 average (9th)
- 1096 strikeouts (dead last)
- .700 OPS (7th)
They don’t hit for average, they strike out a ton, and they’re not particularly dynamic on the bases.
But they do just enough damage:
- 5th in slugging
- 5th in extra-base hits
This is a feast-or-famine lineup. When they hit, they win. When they don’t, it gets ugly fast.
Pitching: Better Than It Looks… Maybe
- 4.11 ERA (6th)
- .225 opponent average (5th)
- 4th in strikeouts
That’s respectable.
But then you see it:
- .249 BABIP (2nd lowest in UL)
- 201 home runs allowed (11th)
That’s a red flag.
They’re getting a little lucky on balls in play, and when they make mistakes, they get punished. That’s not a combination you want heading into September.
The One Thing They Are Doing Right
They’re beating the teams they need to beat.
Look at August:
- Took games from Arizona on the road
- Won a series in Washington
- Went into Los Angeles and took two out of three
- Followed it up by handling Colorado
That’s not dominance—but it’s awareness.
Good teams win games. Smart teams win the right games.
Right now, the Padres are doing just enough of the latter.
Here’s the Truth Nobody Wants to Say
The Padres might make the playoffs.
Not because they’re great.
But because nobody else is either.
- Arizona isn’t pulling away
- The Dodgers are stumbling at the worst time
- San Diego is… steady enough
And in a division like this, “steady enough” can win it.
Final Verdict
Are the Padres good?
No. Not really.
Are they better than the Diamondbacks right now? Slightly.
Are they playing better baseball than the Dodgers right now? Absolutely.
And that’s all that matters.
If they keep playing .550–.600 ball the rest of the way, they’re going to be right there at the end—because no one else has shown they can do any better.
This division isn’t being won.
It’s being handed to whoever screws up the least.
Right now, the Padres are making fewer mistakes than the other two.
And in this race, that might be enough.