Welcome to the hitter’s market, where one team’s “impact bat” is another team’s “solid platoon option.”
This class is… underwhelming. There are a few genuinely useful players, but if you’re looking for a franchise-changing superstar, you’re about two years too late. Most contenders will be shopping for complementary pieces, while rebuilding clubs will convince themselves that “veteran leadership” was the plan all along.
In other words, it’s the perfect free-agent class to wildly overpay in.
CF Eric Davis
Best Fit: Toronto Blue Jays
Wexler Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Toronto feels like the obvious fit. Davis still has legitimate thunder in his bat, can run, and gives the Blue Jays a veteran middle-of-the-order presence. Sure, asking him to play center field every day is a little like asking your uncle to guard Michael Jordan in a pickup game, but that’s a problem for future Toronto.
The bigger problem is money.
Someone is going to hand Davis a contract that makes Toronto politely excuse itself from the conversation, and that someone is Colorado.
The Rockies have spent this offseason acting like they’re tired of losing 85 games every year. Add in Coors Field, where routine fly balls go to receive their pilot’s license, and suddenly 33 home runs starts looking suspiciously like 45.
LF Ray Lankford
Best Fit: Kansas City Royals
Wexler Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Eventually everyone stops pretending they’re moving on.
Lankford wanted more money than Kansas City was willing to offer. Kansas City wanted to pay less than Lankford wanted. That’s called negotiating, not breaking up.
There will be meetings.
There will be rumors.
There will probably be one mystery team used as leverage.
And then he’ll probably end up right back where he started because, despite all the posturing, it’s still the best baseball fit for both sides.
Sometimes free agency is less “high-stakes drama” and more “couple arguing over the thermostat.”
1B Orestes Kindelán
Best Fit: New York Mets
Wexler Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets desperately need someone who can play first base and hit like a first baseman, which sounds like an unfair expectation until you remember they’re currently rolling with Olmedo Sáenz.
Kindelán is easily the most intriguing bat on the market, meaning his asking price is about to climb faster than owners claim inflation is affecting payroll.
Instead, I’ll take Philadelphia.
The Phillies discovered last season that you can sign a veteran to a bloated one-year contract, watch him mash for four months, and then flip him at the deadline for prospects. Once a front office finds a loophole, they tend to run it into the ground.
3B Chris Brown
Best Fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
Wexler Prediction: Washington Senators
Brown returning to Los Angeles makes all the baseball sense in the world.
Which is exactly why I’m predicting Washington.
The Senators don’t need another everyday player. They need another guy who can quietly accumulate 400 quality plate appearances while everyone else gets hurt.
Brown can cover first, third, and DH. He’s 36, dependable, and thoroughly unexciting.
Championship teams love players like Chris Brown.
Fans spend all winter asking, “Why did we sign him?”
By October they’re saying, “You know, he was actually pretty useful.”
Final Thoughts
This hitting market is the baseball equivalent of opening the refrigerator, realizing there’s nothing to eat, and convincing yourself shredded cheese counts as dinner.
Someone is going to convince themselves Derek Bell is a cornerstone.
Someone else is going to hand Eric Davis one last huge payday.
At least three owners will proudly announce they’ve added “a proven veteran bat” when what they actually added was a league-average player coming off his age-34 season.
And somewhere, one general manager is staring at this free-agent class, quietly closing the file, and calling about a trade instead.
He’s probably making the right decision.