We’re two months into the season, and while it’s far too early to slap a “bust” or “steal” label on any draft pick, it is the perfect time for a check-in. The top of the draft came with some big names and bigger expectations—but has the production lived up to the billing?
Let’s take a closer look at how the first five players selected are faring in their rookie campaigns.
#1 – Andy Pettitte, SP
Team: Washington Senators
Potential: ★★★★
Current Rating: ★★★
The top overall pick is already logging innings in the big leagues, but let’s just say the early results have been… mixed. Pettitte has made 11 starts with a 3–2 record, a 4.18 ERA, and 10 home runs allowed. While his complete game shutout against San Diego on April 2nd showcased his ceiling, back-to-back short outings against the Dodgers and Giants in late May highlight his inconsistency.
He features a deep six-pitch mix—fastball, slider, curve, changeup, sinker, cutter—but his “stuff” rating (11) is lagging behind his movement (16) and control (15). That’s showing up in the contact hitters are making, particularly via the long ball.
Verdict: Still growing. April was solid (3.20 ERA), but a 5.79 mark in May is a red flag. For now, Pettitte looks more like a solid mid-rotation arm than a franchise ace. Top pick? Not yet.
#2 – Hideo Nomo, SP
Team: Minnesota Twins
Potential: ★★★
Current Rating: ★★★
The second pick was once pegged as a potential #1. So far, that hype hasn’t translated. Nomo owns a 1–4 record through 11 starts with a 4.31 ERA and a troubling 17 home runs surrendered—more than 1.5 per start.
The arsenal is deep—fastball, slider, curve, forkball, circle change—but his shaky control (11) has been a liability. Nomo’s lone win came in dominant fashion against the Cubs: 8.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER. Outside of that? It’s been a struggle.
The one silver lining? His May (2.40 ERA over 4 starts) was a dramatic improvement from a miserable April (6.95 ERA).
Verdict: Trending up, but still disappointing for a top-two pick. If he can sustain May’s form, there’s hope.
#3 – Brian S. Giles, RF
Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Potential: ★★★★
Current Rating: ★★★★
This one’s easy: Brian Giles looks like a superstar in the making. Through 55 games, he’s slugging .569 with 15 HR and 46 RBI. His .280 average and .377 OBP round out one of the most complete offensive profiles in the league—not just among rookies, but period.
Rated the current #1 prospect in the game, Giles is a devastating presence at the plate. His contact (17), gap (17), power (15), eye (16), and avoid K (15) numbers paint the picture of an elite bat. Defensively, he’s limited, but as a designated hitter? He’s a force.
Verdict: Should’ve gone first. The Cardinals may have walked away with the best pure hitter in the draft at #3.
#4 – Jason Giambi, 1B
Team: Chicago White Sox
Potential: ★★★½
Current Rating: ★★
Giambi’s still marinating in AAA, and that’s probably for the best. His bat has plenty of pop—18 power, 17 eye—but the rest of his game still needs some seasoning. Through 53 AAA games, he’s hitting .329 with 11 homers, 48 RBI, and a .946 OPS. No question he’s doing damage in the minors.
The challenge will be whether he can bring that same production against major league pitching. His defense at first is serviceable, but his hit tool (14 contact, 12 gap) could be a limiting factor against top arms.
Verdict: Not ML-ready yet, but he’s doing everything you’d hope for in AAA. The tools are there; now it’s just a matter of timing.
#5 – Derek Jeter, SS
Team: New York Yankees
Potential: ★★★
Current Rating: ★★½
There’s no way around it—Jeter was picked more with the heart than the head. He was a fan-favorite going in, but his skill set hasn’t made the Yankees look smart just yet. He’s slashing .224/.287/.368 through 53 games with 7 HR and 26 RBI—not terrible, but hardly impact-level for a top-five pick.
His bat has potential (18 contact), but the rest of his offensive profile is middling, and his defense at shortstop is a major concern with a rating of just 6. He currently sits as the #13 overall prospect, but unless his glove improves, he may need to shift off shortstop entirely.
Verdict: Middling bat, questionable glove. The upside is limited unless there’s a serious leap forward.
Final Thoughts
Two months in, the draft board’s looking upside down. Giles is already raking and making teams wonder how they let him slide to #3. Pettitte and Nomo? Still trying to find their footing. Giambi’s crushing in AAA but remains a work in progress. And Jeter? Unless the bat really blossoms, that pick’s going to raise eyebrows for a while.
There’s a long way to go, and plenty of time for growth—but if we’re calling it like we see it now? The Cardinals stole the show.