Your favorite DBL writer is not infallable when it comes to his work, although my ego suggests otherwise. Before the season, I put together nine thoughts looking ahead to the season that was. Here’s my unbiased view on how I did:
1. One of the Big Boys Goes Bust
Correct. The Chicago Cubs are this year’s team under the microscope – while they were perhaps the hottest team in the second half of the season, they dug themselves a hole early and couldn’t quite find the magic to overcome it. I had predicted the Marlins and Twins to miss it despite being ranked top 10, and I was at least right about one of them.
2. Pedro, Cy Young, Again—Shocker
Correct (?). Time will tell, but this feels inevitable. 13.9 WAR and atop 12 different pitching leaderboards, if Pedro doesn’t win the Cy Young, it’s more an indictment of shitty voters than it is anything that Pedro did.
3. The UL West: Expect Weirdness
Partially correct? Guess it depends on how you define weirdness. Arizona, despite being ranked 16th in the GOPI, wins the division. Seattle came in second, rather convincingly, with a mixed bag beyond that.
4. Federal League Forecast: Lock It and Load It
Wrong. Here’s what I said: Kansas City and the Cubs are basically postseason reservations at this point. The rest? A food fight. Cincinnati and Orlando are my picks to crawl out of the scrum, but Florida, Minnesota, and St. Louis won’t make it easy. 50% hit rate ain’t bad?
5. Bonds Wakes Up
Wrong. While he did wake up, he’s shockingly not top 5 in any of the major offensive categories. Given his ratings, that feels like a dissapointment.
6. Rookie Rumble
Correct. Perfectly nailed Scott Rolen as a pick in the FL – top 5 in WAR and a big part of the Cincinnati success. Jason Kendall ends the year with a WAR over 5.4. Guerrero wasn’t shabby either (WAR of 3.5).
7. Royals vs. Expos: The October Show
TBD.
8. Surprise Teams: Rangers and Padres
Partially correct. I predicted both teams would finish over .500 – Texas was competing for a spot in the playoffs well into September and San Diego, while not hitting .500, fought hard and ended September with a 16-11 record.
9. New Owners, Big Moves
Partially correct. Los Angeles and Colorado played it quiet during the season, but New York made solid trades all year. Big offseasons coming up for all three.