Well, we’re finally here.
The 1998 season is about to begin, which means it’s time for me to do the thing every sportswriter loves:
Pretend I know what’s going to happen.
Last season, I made a bunch of predictions.
I was spectacularly wrong about several of them.
So naturally, I’ve decided the best course of action is to put another eleven opinions in writing where everyone can find them later.
You’re welcome.
Let’s get stupid.
1. Boston will finish with the worst record in the league
Let’s start with the easiest prediction in the history of predictions.
Boston is going to be terrible.
Not “bad.”
Not “rebuilding.”
Terrible.
The Red Sox have made it abundantly clear that they’re comfortable sacrificing 1998 in order to secure the first overall pick, and I don’t see anyone in this league being more committed to finishing last.
Boston will finish with the worst record in the league and head into the offseason with the first overall pick that they now control.
But here’s my bold prediction:
They’ll also win the Triple-A title.
Imagine explaining that franchise to someone who hasn’t followed the DBL.
“How’d you guys do this year?”
“We were the worst team in baseball.”
“Oh, that’s rough.”
“No, you don’t understand. We were the best team in the minors.”
“Oh.”
“Yeah.”
“Why?”
“Shut up.”
2. It’s going to be another buyers’ league where nobody wants to buy anything
I expect the trade market to be active.
Technically.
There are going to be teams trying to sell veterans almost immediately.
There are going to be contenders calling.
There are going to be owners posting availability notices.
And then absolutely nothing will happen.
Because everyone has finally figured out that draft picks and cheap contracts are valuable.
So every seller wants a first-round pick.
Every buyer wants to pay a third.
Every owner insists their 34-year-old making $350,000 is “a perfect fit for a contender.”
And everyone will spend three months holding their best assets hostage while complaining that the market is stagnant.
Can’t wait.
3. Entry-contract hitters are about to become baseball’s hottest currency
This one is less joke and more actual prediction.
The position-learning system has changed the value of young hitters.
If you can acquire an entry-contract player and spend points making him better, you’ve got something teams desperately want:
Control.
Why gamble on a draft pick that might be useful in three years when you can acquire a young hitter today and start developing him immediately?
I think we’re going to see a lot more teams hunting for these players.
And I think some owners are going to be shocked at what they’re worth.
Then they’ll complain about it.
Naturally.
4. No Top-20 hitter gets traded. At least two Top-20 pitchers do.
I’m calling it.
I don’t think a single Top-20 hitter gets moved this season.
Nobody is going to want to part with that kind of production.
Pitchers are different.
I’m predicting at least two Top-20 starters get traded.
The names I’m watching:
Matt Young in Milwaukee.
Juan Guzman in Minnesota.
Both are good enough to matter in October.
Neither team feels like a serious October team.
Do the math.
If either club is six games out by July, somebody is going to show up with a suitcase full of draft picks and suddenly we’re going to find out how much an ace costs.
5. Chris Carpenter and J.D. Drew win Rookie of the Year
I’m going with Chris Carpenter in the Federal League and J.D. Drew in the United League.
Carpenter spent all of last year in Triple-A, which means he’s entering 1998 without having to learn baseball while simultaneously playing baseball.
He’s ready.
And Philadelphia looks like a team that’s finally starting to put something together.
Drew is my United League pick.
Yes, Washington has Carlos Beltran and Javier Vazquez.
Yes, they’re both excellent.
No, I don’t care.
I’m taking Drew.
Partly because I think he’ll be great.
Partly because I enjoy being difficult.
6. Three teams from the United League East make the playoffs
Washington.
Montreal.
Toronto.
All three.
The East is going to be a bloodbath.
There are going to be teams winning 90 games and still complaining about the schedule.
There are going to be teams losing 90 games and still somehow taking two of three from somebody.
San Diego gets my pick in the West.
The Padres finished 1997 strongly and have spent the offseason behaving like a team that thinks they’re close.
At some point, you have to let them prove it.
7. Kansas City wins the Federal League again
I’m not overthinking this.
Kansas City is the No. 1 seed.
Again.
Orlando is second.
Charlotte is third.
Cincinnati is fourth.
At this point, I’m beginning to suspect Kansas City has discovered an infinite-money glitch.
They just keep turning veterans into draft picks and draft picks into winning baseball teams.
It’s obnoxious.
It’s also impressive.
8. Montreal and Washington are under more pressure than anyone
Montreal has run out of excuses.
At some point, having a bunch of talented players stops being an explanation and starts being an expectation.
They haven’t gotten the playoff success you’d expect.
That needs to change.
Washington has a different problem.
They came into this league with a reputation.
The wunderkind.
The OOTP genius.
The guy who supposedly knows exactly what he’s doing.
Great.
Now win.
The DBL doesn’t hand out trophies for being clever.
Eventually, you have to actually beat somebody.
I think both teams feel that pressure this season.
9. Barry Bonds and Gary Sheffield win MVP
I’m really putting my neck out there.
Barry Bonds.
Gary Sheffield.
MVP.
Somebody call Vegas.
Actually, don’t.
They’d laugh at me.
10. Pedro Martinez and Kevin Brown win the Cy Youngs
Pedro Martinez.
Kevin Brown.
Cy Young.
I’m not going to pretend this is some brilliant piece of analysis.
They’re awesome.
I’m picking them.
If you want nuance, go read someone else.
11. Kansas City beats Washington in the World Series
Yes.
I’m doing it.
Kansas City versus Washington.
Washington finally gets the postseason run we’ve been waiting for.
The young talent arrives.
The roster clicks.
The whole thing comes together.
And then Kansas City wins.
Because of course they do.
The Royals have figured out how to stay competitive while constantly reshaping the roster, and until someone actually knocks them off, I’m not betting against it.
So There You Have It
Eleven predictions.
Some are smart.
Some are obvious.
Some are completely insane.
And at least half of them will probably look incredibly stupid by August.
But that’s the beauty of Opening Day.
Everyone is undefeated.
Everyone’s offseason was brilliant.
Every prospect is a future star.
Every veteran is about to bounce back.
And every owner thinks their team is better than the GOPI says it is.
We’ll find out soon enough.
Good luck to everyone in 1998.
And congratulations in advance to Boston on their upcoming Triple-A championship.