As we inch toward the start of the 1998 season, one thing is becoming abundantly clear:
We have no shortage of teams aiming for the bottom.
The Baltimore Orioles have stripped the roster down to the studs while the league searches for new ownership. The reward? A clean slate and a collection of first-round picks that now rivals some teams’ entire farm systems.
The Boston Red Sox, apparently offended by the possibility that Baltimore might out-tank them, have responded by declaring open war on competitiveness. Shane Mack, David Ortiz, and virtually the entire 1997 starting rotation have all been stashed in the minor leagues. Whether that’s about development, roster flexibility, or making absolutely sure they don’t accidentally win too many games is up for debate, but the message couldn’t be clearer.
The Chicago Cubs, the Detroit Tigers, and the Las Vegas Angels haven’t publicly declared a rebuild, but none seemed particularly devastated by where they landed in the GOPI rankings either.
And that’s where I find myself asking a very simple question:
Who exactly are we tanking for?
Tanking isn’t new in the DBL.
It’s a strategy.
Sometimes an effective one.
If you control your own draft picks and draft well, a bad season can become the foundation for a good decade.
We’ve seen it before.
We’ll see it again.
But this year feels different.
Because this upcoming draft class?
Woof.
Let’s look at the top historical WAR leaders from the projected 1998 class:
- Tim Hudson
- Lance Berkman
- Freddy Garcia
- A.J. Burnett
- Alfonso Soriano
- Vernon Wells
- Carlos Lee
- Melvin Mora
- Ted Lilly
- Joe Nathan
That’s… a list.
Not a bad list.
But a list.
And before anyone gets upset, yes, several of those players will have perfectly respectable careers.
Some may even become stars.
But compared to some of the draft classes this league has seen? Compared to the franchise-altering monsters that have entered the DBL in previous years?
This class feels light.
Very light.
I struggle to find a player here who projects as a Top-20 talent in the league.
Maybe Hudson becomes an ace.
Maybe Berkman turns into a middle-of-the-order force.
Maybe Soriano learns what a walk is.
But we’re not talking about a draft filled with obvious franchise cornerstones.
We’re talking about a draft where the difference between picking first and picking eighth may be much smaller than people think.
So why the rush to be terrible?
There are a few possibilities.
Some owners simply understand that the worst place to be is the middle.
Winning 75 games every season and drafting 14th isn’t exactly a blueprint for greatness.
Others may believe that any high pick is better than no high pick, regardless of class strength.
And yes, if we’re being honest, some owners may simply be better at losing than winning.
That happens too.
What fascinates me most is how early the tanking calendar has moved.
The idea of playing bad players isn’t new.
Parking veterans in Triple-A isn’t new.
Manipulating playing time for draft position isn’t new.
That’s all been part of the DBL ecosystem for years.
But usually it happens in June.
Or July.
Maybe August.
Now?
It’s happening before Opening Day.
We’re setting Opening Day rosters designed to lose baseball games in September.
That’s a new frontier.
And the competitive implications are fascinating.
The teams in the Federal League East and the United League East are probably looking around right now and quietly smiling.
Because there are going to be a lot of wins available this year.
Some clubs are showing up prepared to compete.
Others are showing up prepared to draft Tim Hudson.
Whether that’s wise remains to be seen.
And maybe that’s the funniest part of all this.
The race to the bottom has never been more competitive.
I’m just not entirely convinced the prize is worth it.
And before fans of these rebuilding clubs flood my inbox, let me be clear:
Tanking works.
Sometimes.
The Orioles are trying it.
Boston has practically turned it into performance art.
Others are quietly flirting with it.
But if you’re going to lose 100 games, you’d better be sure the player waiting at the end of the tunnel is worth the trip.
This year?
I’m not so sure.
And somewhere, Lyle Mouton and Tim Bogar are preparing to bat third and fourth for teams that probably shouldn’t be allowed to call themselves major league clubs.
No offense intended, gentlemen.