One of the benefits of writing hundreds of words about every trade is that eventually you’re going to be wrong.
One of the downsides of writing hundreds of words about every trade is that everyone remembers when you’re wrong.
So let’s get this out of the way.
I still think the San Diego Padres overpaid for Jeromy Burnitz.
There. I said it.
You can yell at me in the comments.
But I do owe an apology on the Denny Neagle portion of that deal.
Because the trade tree is now complete.
The Kansas City Royals have sent Jose Canseco and a 1997 second-round pick to the New York Yankees in exchange for Osvaldo Fernandez and a 1997 fifth-round pick.
And with that, we can finally evaluate what Kansas City actually received for Denny Neagle.
The answer?
Less than I originally thought.
Let’s rewind.
When the Royals traded Neagle to San Diego, they received the 10th overall pick and Jose Canseco, who was included largely to make the finances work.
At the time, I viewed Canseco as a temporary asset.
A contract.
A placeholder.
A player who would inevitably be moved elsewhere.
What I didn’t anticipate was how expensive it would be to move him.
The Royals ultimately had to attach the final pick of the second round just to get the contract off their books.
That’s not nothing.
In fact, that’s the entire story.
From New York’s perspective, this is an easy decision.
The Yankees looked at the situation and essentially said, “Sure, we’ll take your problem.”
Canseco is in the final year of his contract.
The salary isn’t insignificant.
The production no longer fully justifies the cost.
But who cares?
The Yankees aren’t surrendering meaningful value here.
If Canseco still has something left in the tank, he can help the major league club.
If he plays well, they can flip him in July.
If he stinks, they move on after the season.
And in exchange for absorbing the money, they get the final pick of the second round.
That’s excellent business.
It’s the kind of low-risk asset play smart organizations make.
As for Kansas City, this changes the way we have to look at the Neagle trade.
Because now the accounting is complete.
The Royals effectively traded:
Denny Neagle
and
A second-round pick
for
The 10th overall pick
and
A fifth-round pick.
That’s still a decent return.
But it’s no longer the slam dunk it initially appeared to be.
Neagle wasn’t some random innings-eater.
He was a Top-20 starter.
A franchised player.
One of the better pitchers available on the market.
We’ve seen teams receive enormous hauls for premium talent this offseason.
Compared to some of those deals, this one feels noticeably lighter.
Now, context matters.
Kansas City needed the financial flexibility.
The Royals had multiple roster decisions looming and clearly prioritized creating room to maneuver.
I understand why they did it.
Frankly, they may not have had much choice.
But necessity doesn’t automatically create value.
And once the Canseco portion of the transaction is finalized, the return loses some of the shine that surrounded it on trade day.
That’s okay.
Not every trade needs to be a grand slam.
Sometimes you make the move that’s available.
Sometimes you solve a financial problem.
Sometimes you sacrifice a little value to gain flexibility.
The Royals did all three.
I still think they did reasonably well.
I just don’t think they did quite as well as I originally gave them credit for.
And yes, I know.
The internet will make sure I remember that.
Trade Grades
New York Yankees: A
The Yankees assume salary, give up very little of consequence, and acquire an extra second-round pick. If Canseco contributes, great. If not, they’re still ahead.
Kansas City Royals: B
The return for Neagle ultimately feels lighter now that the entire trade tree has played out. The Royals got the cap relief they needed and still landed a Top-10 pick, but for a franchised Top-20 starter, the final package doesn’t quite sparkle the way it once did.