Re-sign numbers are out. The draft is less than a week away. Front offices are working the phones. Owners are staring nervously at spreadsheets. And somewhere, at least one general manager is trying to convince himself that a .199 hitter making nearly $400,000 a year is actually a market inefficiency.
Baseball is back.
The biggest story so far isn’t a trade. It isn’t a draft rumor. It’s the reaction to the new contract calculation system.
For years, every offseason featured the same ritual. Owners would open their re-sign reports, immediately develop a migraine, and begin composing angry messages about how Player X wanted enough money to purchase a small island nation.
This year? Relative silence.
That’s not to say there haven’t been difficult conversations. There absolutely have. Somewhere in America an owner is currently asking his GM why a middle reliever wants more money than a public school superintendent. But compared to previous offseasons, the outrage has been remarkably muted.
And frankly, the numbers support it.
Take Carl Everett in Charlotte.
Everett is reportedly asking for $320,000 annually. That’s it.
Given his production and market value, I expected something significantly higher. Charlotte almost certainly franchises him, but if they don’t have champagne on ice after seeing that number, they should.
Speaking of champagne, Cubs ownership may have drained the entire city reserve after seeing Mike Piazza’s ask come in around $340,000.
A franchise hitter. One of the premier bats in baseball. $340,000.
That’s the kind of number that makes a general manager accidentally hit “reply all” on an email celebrating.
What we’re seeing is exactly what the league hoped for. Teams can actually keep stars now. The result may be fewer impact free agents and more creative roster-building. That’s probably healthier for the league.
Of course, healthy doesn’t necessarily mean everyone is happy.
The Death of Salary as a Trade Asset
One of the more fascinating developments over the past year is the market’s complete reevaluation of contract value.
Five years ago, if a player was making $350,000, owners treated him like he was carrying the Ark of the Covenant.
Today?
The league collectively shrugs.
Unless you’re talking about one of the true elite players in baseball, salary simply isn’t driving trade value anymore.
Teams have figured out that paying a first-round pick for a decent player making $400,000 isn’t some clever win-now strategy. It’s just paying a first-round pick for a decent player making $400,000.
Progress.
This shift is going to reshape trade negotiations. Owners who still think expensive contracts are premium assets may be in for some difficult conversations over the next few months.
And nobody appears more aware of that reality than Orlando.
Orlando Wants Picks. Lots of Picks.
The Warriors already moved Andy Benes, but Brian Jordan remains available.
Jordan is one of the more interesting names on the market because he’s not simply a rental. By all accounts, his extension rate remains reasonable enough that an acquiring club could justify keeping him around.
The problem is Orlando knows this.
They’re reportedly hunting draft capital, and they’re not being subtle about it.
The obvious fits are clubs drafting later in the first round. Washington. Florida. Montreal.
The question becomes whether any of those organizations believe they’re one Brian Jordan away from meaningful contention.
History suggests most general managers answer that question with “yes.”
History also suggests many of them are wrong.
Boston’s Garage Sale
Then we arrive at Boston.
The Red Sox have advertised both Barry Bonds and the 21st overall pick.
One of those assets is considerably easier to move.
The pick practically sells itself.
Everybody knows Toronto has been collecting current draft selections like a suburban dad collecting vintage baseball cards. If the Blue Jays truly remain willing to move future first-rounders for present-day picks, this feels almost too obvious.
The Bonds discussion is much more complicated.
Everybody wants Barry Bonds.
That’s the easy part.
The difficult part is having enough assets to acquire Barry Bonds while still fielding a baseball team afterward.
Still, let’s dream for a moment.
Seattle already has enough first-round picks to start its own draft.
Imagine a lineup featuring Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero.
Televisions would explode.
Pitchers would file formal complaints.
The league office would probably investigate whether such offensive production violates labor laws.
Unfortunately for baseball fans, fantasy lineups are usually easier to build than actual trades.
Baltimore’s Annual Estate Sale
The league-owned Orioles continue to operate like a family selling furniture before moving across the country.
Everything appears available.
Roger McDowell may be the most appealing piece.
He’s still a legitimate bullpen arm, and every contender eventually reaches the same conclusion: no matter how many relievers you have, you need one more.
The bigger questions involve Dwight Gooden and Steve Avery.
Particularly Avery.
Because once Baltimore started hinting they might eat salary, every GM in baseball suddenly developed an interest.
Funny how that works.
Nobody wants the contract.
Plenty of people want the player if someone else is paying for him.
It’s one of baseball’s oldest traditions.
Kansas City’s Accounting Problem
Then there’s Kansas City.
The Royals are currently trying to answer the question every mid-market team eventually faces:
Who can we afford, and who are we pretending we can afford?
Two names have surfaced publicly: Kaz Kiyohara and Jeromy Burnitz.
Kiyohara is fascinating.
He’s making just $160,000 in 1998. The ratings split scouts like a political debate. Some executives see a flawed hitter. Others see a cheap source of power in a league where power isn’t exactly growing on trees.
Personally, I think somebody talks themselves into him.
The salary is low enough to ignore the flaws.
The home runs are loud enough to ignore the warnings.
And designated hitters don’t exactly need to win Gold Gloves.
Burnitz, meanwhile, may own the most underwater contract currently available.
Let’s review.
Five years.
$384,000 annually.
A .199 batting average.
A .719 OPS.
Twenty-nine home runs.
Somewhere, an accountant is crying.
This extension increasingly looks like one of the few genuine misses by Royals ownership.
The challenge isn’t simply finding a buyer.
The challenge is finding someone willing to absorb the contract without demanding compensation for the privilege.
At this point, Kansas City may have better luck convincing teams Burnitz is a valuable financial instrument than convincing them he’s a positive trade asset.
One Week Until Chaos
With the draft approaching, front offices are entering the most dangerous stage of the calendar.
The stage where everybody thinks they’re smarter than everybody else.
Picks will be traded.
Rumors will multiply.
Some owner will convince himself that he’s one bold move away from a championship.
Another will accidentally trade away three years of rebuilding progress because he fell in love with a veteran’s RBI totals.
And somewhere, probably right now, a general manager is staring at Jeromy Burnitz’s contract trying to find a way to make the math work.
Good luck with that.
What are you hearing around the league?
Email dblwexler@gmail.com with rumors, tips, and news. Anonymous sources welcome. Accurate anonymous sources even more so.