A year ago, I wrote that Scott Karl deserved more than a polite nod in the Rookie of the Year voting. He led the United League in wins, outpaced a Cy Young winner in the most old-school currency pitchers are judged by, and then shoved his way through October like a veteran who knew exactly how much the moment weighed. That article was rooted in evidence. This one is too — and the evidence is significantly uglier. The Regression Is Not Subtle...
The Boston Red Sox aren’t just giving Mike Stanley more playing time. They’re reopening a chapter most front offices prefer to pretend never happened—and doing it with a smirk. Stanley is set to play roughly every other game, sharing time with Todd Greene, who will handle the primary catching duties. On paper, it looks harmless. Veteran depth. Matchups. Load management for a catcher in his mid-30s. In reality, it’s a subtle reminder of...
If you’ve been watching baseball long enough, you know the drill: eight games is nothing. It’s a blip. A glorified spring-training hangover. And yet, eight games is also all we have right now—so naturally, it’s time to wildly overreact. Let’s take a lap around the league and see what’s jumped out so far. Montreal Is Winning… Without the Offense Montreal sits atop the league with the best record, and the formula has been pretty...
Opening Day is the last safe space in baseball. Everyone is undefeated. Everyone has a plan. Everyone is convinced this is the year the breaks finally go their way. And for about 48 hours, no one is wrong yet. That’s why now is the best time to make bold predictions — before reality starts filing its objections. So let’s not waste it. Montreal is finally getting out of the first round of the playoffs.Yes, that Montreal. And no, this...
Since being drafted by the franchise in 1981, Cal Ripken Jr. has contributed an astounding 89.2 WAR to Toronto — a level of sustained excellence that places him among the most valuable players any organization has ever employed. By every conceivable measure, Ripken is the most famous and influential player in Toronto baseball history. Yet, after a down season in 1995, 1996 delivered an unthinkable indignity: Ripken relegated to the bench....
Pitchers in free agency are where front offices either earn their keep or get fired two years later. Everyone loves the upside, everyone downplays the risk, and someone always convinces themselves this time will be different. These are the arms that matter — and where I think they end up. SP Shinji Imanaka Imanaka is one of the splashier names on the market, mostly because of the unknown. He arrives from Japan young, polished, and ready to...
Free agency is where reputations get exposed. Some players are about to get paid for real production. Others are about to get paid because teams convince themselves they’re smarter than the data. Here’s how I see this small group of hitters landing. Kazuhiro Kiyohara Kiyohara looks better on the surface than he actually is. He’s a good hitter, not a great one — power, patience, and enough consistency to be useful, but not enough to...
As the draft continues, it’s not too early to take stock of how things have unfolded so far. Every team should feel like it’s gotten better—draft day has a way of lifting optimism across the league—but some selections stand out more than others. Ignoring the top of the board (where most teams could have thrown a dart and landed a future star), here are some of my favorite value picks through the first three rounds: Pick 11 — Los...
As we creep toward the end of the third round, the draft board starts to look a little more like a bargain bin—plenty of names, fewer real treasures. By the fourth and fifth rounds, most teams are simply looking for depth pieces, organizational fillers, and cheap role players who can plug gaps when injuries strike. But every draft has its gems buried in the rubble, and this one is no exception. A handful of players still on the board offer...
New York & Orlando New York Yankees Receive: OF John ElwayOrlando Devil Rays Receive: 1998 5th-Round Pick Orlando has broadcast to the entire league that they aren’t re-signing John Elway. Some of it is cap pressure; some of it is simply a franchise pivoting away from its older pieces. Elway is 34 now, but he quietly posted more than 3 WAR last season with an .811 OPS. He barely played after arriving from Texas, but...