With the hitters now out of the way, let’s turn our attention to the pitchers. Unlike the position-player crop, this class actually has some depth. It also has something else every free-agent class needs: a handful of pitchers who are about to get paid like aces despite not actually being aces.
As always, pitching is baseball’s most renewable resource right up until you need it, at which point teams start handing out contracts that make everyone else in the room uncomfortable.
SP1 – Fumiya Nishiguchi
Easily the best starter on the market.
At just 25 years old, Nishiguchi is going to appeal to everybody. Contenders see a polished No. 2 starter. Rebuilders see a long-term piece. Owners see dollar signs.
The only blemish here is the 11 movement, which will scare off the organizations that treat home runs like a communicable disease. Otherwise? It’s a very appealing package: 13 stuff, 16 control, and three green pitches.
He’s not an ace, and some team is absolutely going to pay him like one.
SP2 – Erik Hanson
Not the pitcher he once was, but also not remotely washed.
Hanson went 15-8 with a 4.03 ERA for Charlotte last season and has been an above-average starter for nearly his entire career. He’s 32 now, and the signs of decline are beginning to show, but this is still a perfectly respectable veteran arm.
I wouldn’t go beyond two years.
Which, of course, means someone will go four.
SP3 – Jeff D. Robinson
Thirty-seven years old and fresh off one of his best seasons in years.
Baseball is weird.
Robinson went 8-6 with a 3.85 ERA for Toronto and continues to survive on movement and guile. The 12 stamina means you’re not getting many complete games, but 18 movement and just 12 home runs allowed in 135.2 innings is enough to make contenders take notice.
Nobody’s building around Jeff D. Robinson.
Everybody would like him as their fourth starter.
SP4 – Ramon J. Martinez
One of the few starting pitchers on this list still under 30, which is mildly shocking considering it feels like he’s been pitching since the Carter administration.
The results last year weren’t great: 10-13 with a 4.56 ERA and underlying numbers that scream “league-average innings eater.”
But that’s exactly why he’ll have a market.
Every team needs someone to throw 200 innings so the bullpen doesn’t mutiny by June.
Martinez can still do that.
SP5 – Eric King
Nine stuff. Sixteen movement. Sixteen control.
What’s not to like?
Well, the whole “being league average or worse for two consecutive seasons” thing.
King’s ratings are catnip for analytically inclined general managers. They’ll convince themselves the peripherals suggest a rebound is coming.
Maybe they’re right.
Maybe this is just what 33 looks like.
Either way, someone is going to roll the dice.
SP6 – Rick Aguilera
An intriguing one-year flyer.
Seattle plucked him off the scrap heap during their midseason teardown, and he responded with a respectable 4.48 ERA over 15 starts.
The profile is interesting: 9 stuff, 15 movement, 15 control, and a tendency to keep the ball on the ground.
If your infield defense is excellent—cough St. Louis, cough Milwaukee—this is exactly the sort of pitcher you convince yourself can outperform his projections.
He’s also exactly the sort of pitcher available again next winter.
RP – Roger McDowell
Four stuff.
Four.
And yet, somehow, it works.
McDowell’s 17 movement and 17 control allowed him to save 19 games for a truly dreadful Baltimore club last season.
Would I hand him the ninth inning? Probably not.
Would I absolutely trust him to get important outs in October? Weirdly, yes.
RP – Frank DiPino
The ageless wonder keeps going.
DiPino posted 44 saves between Orlando and Chicago and once again proved that relievers don’t age so much as they simply disappear one day.
Could that happen this year?
Absolutely.
Will someone still sign him?
Also absolutely.
RP – Julian Tavárez
Hey, a young person!
In an otherwise miserable season for Baltimore, Tavárez was one of the few bright spots, posting a 3.52 ERA with 10 saves in 128 innings.
The 5 stamina out of the bullpen is a huge asset, and unlike most of the names on this list, there’s actual upside here.
Someone is going to give him a long-term deal.
For once, they may actually be right.
RP – Mike Schooler
Back to our regularly scheduled programming: old relievers.
Schooler is 35 and coming off 87 innings of 3.93 ERA ball for the Cubs.
Like DiPino and McDowell, he’s exactly the kind of veteran reliever contenders love signing to one-year deals.
And exactly the kind of veteran reliever who could be completely cooked by Memorial Day.
Bullpens are fun.
RP – Blas Minor
This is the annual “the ratings say yes, the stats say no” candidate.
Minor is 31 years old and boasts a very attractive 13-12-16 profile. The problem is that he’s never really translated those tools into major-league success.
That won’t stop anyone.
Someone is going to look at those ratings and convince themselves they’ve found a hidden gem.
It’s one of baseball’s oldest traditions.
Closing Thoughts
The position-player market may have lacked star power, but the pitching market offers something even more dangerous: options.
There are innings eaters, rebound candidates, crafty veterans, and enough intriguing arms to convince every general manager they’re one signing away from fixing their rotation.
Of course, by August, half of these pitchers will have ERAs north of five, two will be on the injured list, one will have inexplicably turned into an ace, and several will be available for a marginal prospect and cash considerations.
Because if there’s one thing baseball executives love more than paying for pitching, it’s paying for pitching and immediately regretting it.