Deep breaths, everybody.
We’ve seen some significant trades already this offseason. We’ve seen salary dumps. We’ve seen draft picks moved. We’ve seen contenders take calculated risks and rebuilding clubs cash out veterans.
This is bigger.
The owner-less Baltimore Orioles have traded ace starter Steve Avery and outfielder Johnny Damon to the Montreal Expos for Chris Nabholz, the 18th overall pick in the 1997 draft, Montreal’s 1998 first-round pick, catcher Doug Mirabelli, and infielder Jeff King.
That’s not a trade.
That’s an organizational philosophy.
Let’s start with Montreal because when a team trades two first-round picks in consecutive drafts, they’re not exactly being subtle.
The Expos are all in.
Again.
Avery is the headline piece.
Oddly enough, he’s somehow absent from many of the league’s top pitcher rankings despite spending years doing little besides pitching like one of the best starters in baseball. At 27 years old and carrying a 3.5-star profile, Avery has quietly become one of the safest bets in the league to provide high-quality innings.
Now he joins a Montreal rotation where he somehow becomes the third starter.
Third.
There are franchises whose entire pitching staff would be improved if Avery showed up tomorrow. Montreal just slid him into the back end of an already loaded top three.
That’s absurd.
And frankly, a little unfair.
His dominance should continue.
The Expos aren’t paying for projection here.
They’re paying for certainty.
Then there’s Damon.
If Avery raises the floor, Damon raises the ceiling.
At 24 years old, Damon has already proven he can be at least a league-average player, and there are still plenty of evaluators who think there’s another level hiding in there somewhere. The ratings remain tantalizing. The athleticism is obvious. The production has been good enough that nobody is worried.
The one concern?
Center field.
Damon’s defense in center isn’t particularly inspiring.
For most teams, that would matter.
For Montreal?
It’s practically a prerequisite.
At this point, poor center field defense feels less like a weakness and more like an organizational tradition. The Expos have spent years proving they’re willing to sacrifice range in center if it means getting another bat into the lineup.
And Damon’s bat is going to play.
Significantly.
The result is a Montreal club that somehow got better both immediately and long-term.
Which explains why they were willing to pay such a steep price.
Now let’s talk about Baltimore.
Because despite surrendering the two best players in the deal, this is a remarkably strong return.
The centerpiece is Chris Nabholz.
And honestly, he’s fascinating.
Despite carrying only a three-star profile, he’s ranked among the league’s top 20 pitchers and has quietly produced a three-year WAR average that actually exceeds Avery’s.
That’s not a typo.
The concern, of course, is age.
Nabholz is already 30 years old, which means Baltimore’s timeline and Nabholz’s timeline don’t exactly line up. In fact, league sources suggest the Orioles have already explored flipping him elsewhere.
Which tells you everything you need to know.
Baltimore may view Nabholz less as a player and more as an asset.
And if they’re able to convert him into even more draft capital?
This trade starts looking even better.
Then there are the picks.
The 18th overall selection this year won’t produce one of the elite blue-chip prospects available at the top of the board, but it should still land a quality player.
Next year’s first-round pick is even more interesting.
Montreal clearly expects it to be late.
They better hope they’re right.
Because if something goes wrong and that pick starts creeping toward the lottery, Baltimore’s return gets significantly more attractive.
Then come the roster pieces.
Doug Mirabelli immediately projects as Baltimore’s starting catcher, which tells you just how bare the Orioles’ roster currently is.
Jeff King feels like the classic “included for financial purposes” player. But given the state of the organization, he’ll probably play a lot too.
That’s life when you’re rebuilding.
Sometimes your throw-ins become starters.
And that’s really what this trade comes down to.
Montreal is operating from a position of strength.
Baltimore is operating from a position of necessity.
The Expos looked at a roster capable of winning now and decided this was the moment to push harder.
The Orioles looked at a roster with no obvious path forward and decided assets were more valuable than stars.
Both approaches make sense.
The difference is that one side is trying to win a championship.
The other side is trying to build a future.
And for once, neither side looks wrong.
Trade Grades
Montreal Expos: A
They filled their center field hole, added one of the best pitchers in baseball, and made an already dangerous roster significantly more dangerous. Expensive? Absolutely. Worth it? Probably.
Baltimore Orioles: A
Two first-round picks. A top-20 starting pitcher who could become another asset. A starting catcher. A playable infielder.
Considering where this franchise was a few months ago, this is an outstanding return. The Orioles didn’t really have a future before this trade.
Now they might