The phones are charged, the executives are restless, and the annual trade-season curtain has officially risen. Every year, one team lights the fuse, making the move that signals the market is open for business. And this year, for the first time, we’re putting odds on which club will be the first to break the seal.
Front offices are posturing, scouts are shuttling from park to park, and agents are whispering about “momentum.” Some teams are motivated by pressure, others by opportunity, and a few simply can’t help themselves.
So, with the market now officially open, here are the inaugural Wexler Opening Trade Odds — handicapping which club is most likely to make the first deal of the season.
WEXLER OPENING TRADE ODDS
Odds to be the first team to complete a trade
San Diego Padres — +150
San Diego waking up and not making a trade would be newsworthy on its own. The Padres have holes, ambition, and a front office that treats the transaction wire like a personal playground. Early favorite by a comfortable margin.
Chicago White Sox — +225
The rebuild continues and they’re on the cusp. The Sox may simply act on the first reasonable offer that lands in their inbox.
Florida Marlins — +300
San Diego has made the headlines but the Marlins are the original Trader. No marketplace posts yet, but I guarantee there has been some back room talking.
Washington Senators — +450
The Senators’ front office has hinted at some moves, but they may wait for the market to develop before jumping. Still, they’ve surprised before, and a proactive move wouldn’t shock insiders.
Toronto Blue Jays — +600
Toronto has some decisions to make and knowing Beastie, won’t want for the market to get going before he strikes.
Field — +900
Never underestimate an unexpected itch to deal. All it takes is one renegade GM trying to beat the rush.