St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
By Jack Fairchild
October baseball doesn’t always give us the matchup we want — but this year, it might’ve given us the one we deserve. The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds arrive in the Federal League Championship Series battered, tested, and emboldened by seven-game wars that revealed as much about their flaws as their strengths.
And now?
Two clubs separated by just four regular-season wins collide with a pennant on the line.
THE CARDINALS: BUILT ON POWER AND PITCHING POISE
There’s no mystery about what gets St. Louis this far — Brian Giles is a one-man storm system. The league’s most dangerous bat (.332, 56 HR, 145 RBI) has spent an entire season flattening pitching staffs and hasn’t slowed down under the October lights.
But the Cardinals aren’t a one-beat symphony.
Their rotation enters this series riding a pair of blazing-hot arms:
- Jay Tibbs: 14–4, 2.64 ERA, 0.00 ERA in his last 3 starts
- Joe Johnson: 14–8, 3.17 ERA, 1.25 ERA in his last 3
Combined with a bullpen anchored by Mariano Rivera and Randy Myers, St. Louis comes into the Championship Series with a staff ERA of 3.69, third-best in the Federal League.
Their offense isn’t deep, but it is explosive. Beyond Giles, Ivan Calderon, Karim Garcia, and Jay Bell all offer power that can tilt a game in one swing. And don’t forget the speed — 295 steals, most in the Federal League by a mile. If they get on, they’re going.
St. Louis is dangerous because they can beat you three different ways.
That’s rare in October.
THE REDS: THE FEDERAL LEAGUE’S HEAVY HITTERS
If the Cardinals are balanced, Cincinnati is blunt-force trauma.
They scored 853 runs, more than any team in the Federal League, powered by the most intimidating heart of the order in the postseason:
- Scott Rolen: .288, 40 HR, 125 RBI
- Eric Davis: 40 HR, 104 RBI, 40 SB
- Bernie Williams: 31 HR, 95 RBI
- Matt Stairs: 30 HR
- Javy López: 26 HR
This isn’t a lineup — it’s a detonation sequence.
And what makes Cincinnati terrifying heading into this series is simple:
their pitching just survived Kansas City at their hottest.
Mike Mussina remains the league’s model of reliability (19–7, 2.73 ERA, 232 K). José Rijo has turned back the clock (15–8, 3.27) and enters this round red-hot after a 0.68 ERA stretch. And while stamina may be an issue, the Reds’ bullpen anchored by Arthur Rhodes (2.39 ERA) is good enough to hold a lead.
Their weakness?
They give up runs — 755 of them, seventh in the league.
If their offense slows, they can’t win low-scoring games.
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Rolen vs. Tibbs & Johnson
The Reds need their MVP candidate to do damage early in counts. Tibbs and Johnson thrive on dictating pace; Rolen thrives on disrupting it.
2. Cardinals’ speed vs. Reds’ catchers
St. Louis runs constantly. Cincinnati allowed 125 steals — tenth in the league. That’s the mismatch of the series.
3. Bullpen Stability
The Reds’ bullpen is competent but inconsistent. St. Louis has Rivera.
If games tighten late, the Cardinals hold a decisive edge.
JACK’S PICK
This is as evenly matched as a Championship Series gets.
If Cincinnati’s bats stay molten, they can overwhelm anyone.
But St. Louis’ pitching is entering this series white-hot, and their ability to manufacture runs in multiple ways gives them the slightest edge.
CARDINALS in 7.
Another war. Another classic. And another reminder that autumn baseball will take years off your life.